Tourism is a lucrative sector for many southern African economies, with much of the region’s attraction coming from its rich natural heritage. The influence of water is key to its success, with attractions such as the Okavango Delta and Victoria Falls drawing in hundreds-of-thousands of foreign visitors annually. However, tourism is fundamentally climate-sensitive. This article will explore the implications of a changing climate for southern Africa’s water-based tourism industry.
Tourism, global change and southern Africa
Tourism is fast developing on the world stage. Synonymous with globalisation, the sector continues to grow, adding $7.2 trillion to world GDP in 2015. Many aspects across the industry are climate-determined. Climate influences seasonality, destinations, available attractions/activities and customer satisfaction. Invariably this leaves many aspects of tourism susceptible to climate change. Compared to the global north, the implications of climate change on the tourism sector across Africa have been under-researched. This is despite comparatively damaging climate projections for the continent and sub-Saharan Africa’s relatively low adaptive capacity. Tourism in southern Africa is economically important and highly vulnerable to environmental change. For example, tourism (largely ‘eco’-based) is Botswana’s second most important industry (after mining). If the Okavango Delta (its major attraction) were to dry out, it would have devastating repercussions for the national economy. This is a repeating theme across the region.
Climate change, speculation and Victoria Falls
David Livingstone, the first European to visit Victoria Falls in 1858 described it as a ‘scene so lovely (that it) must have been gazed upon by angels in their flight’. Whilst undoubtedly beautiful, the name ‘Victoria’ Falls is emblematic of its inherent colonial legacy. In fact, it can be argued that early European development surrounding the falls embodied a colonial drive to exploit African resources at a local and regional scale. Nevertheless, the falls today have become vitally important for the tourism sector in both Zambia and Zimbabwe (the falls straddle the border and can be visited from either country). I was lucky enough to visit as a boy in the late 2000s and, although some time ago, I remember it as a truly special place.
Victoria Falls is fed by the Zambezi River. Thus, any impact of regional drying surrounding the Zambezi will have a knock-on effect downstream on Victoria Falls. In 2019, a prolonged drought caused a significant reduction in flow, resulting in a partial drying of the falls. Reactionary (and somewhat sensationalist) media reporting, catalysed its effect on the local tourism sector. Sky News reported that the falls had slowed to ‘a dribble’, prompting mass holiday cancellations, impacting tour operations on both sides of the border. For countries like Zambia, who rely heavily on nature-based tourism for much of their economy’s service sector, a blow to tourism can considerably reduce GDP. A study published in 2020, found that many tourists considered Victoria Falls a ‘last-chance to see’ destination, suggesting significant implications for the long term viability of a water-based tourism industry. Although the majority of stakeholders have not yet developed or implemented adaptation strategies, the industry must diversify, particularly during periods of drought. There is also a need for greater cross-border cooperation in research, as political boundaries rarely align with climatic ones.
There is statistically significant evidence to support a link between climate variability and tourism in the Zambian town of Livingstone, which is nearby to the falls. It has seen that increasingly variable weather, including inconsistent rainfall, have a negative impact on tourism. In this example, the town’s economy is directly affected by climate variability. In the meantime, overdramatization in the media can exacerbate climate impacts. In the case of Victoria Falls, the waterfall is split into two parts (or “cataracts”). Most photos in news articles contending that the falls had ‘dried-up’, were taken of the Eastern Cataract, which has a naturally significantly smaller flow and occasionally, seasonally runs dry, a phenomenon colloquially known as ‘Victoria Walls’. This usually happens around December (the end of the dry-season), but, during periods of less rainfall, lag between rainfall and discharge results in the later-than-usual return of full-flow.
Tourism, global change and southern Africa
Tourism is fast developing on the world stage. Synonymous with globalisation, the sector continues to grow, adding $7.2 trillion to world GDP in 2015. Many aspects across the industry are climate-determined. Climate influences seasonality, destinations, available attractions/activities and customer satisfaction. Invariably this leaves many aspects of tourism susceptible to climate change. Compared to the global north, the implications of climate change on the tourism sector across Africa have been under-researched. This is despite comparatively damaging climate projections for the continent and sub-Saharan Africa’s relatively low adaptive capacity. Tourism in southern Africa is economically important and highly vulnerable to environmental change. For example, tourism (largely ‘eco’-based) is Botswana’s second most important industry (after mining). If the Okavango Delta (its major attraction) were to dry out, it would have devastating repercussions for the national economy. This is a repeating theme across the region.
Climate change, speculation and Victoria Falls
David Livingstone, the first European to visit Victoria Falls in 1858 described it as a ‘scene so lovely (that it) must have been gazed upon by angels in their flight’. Whilst undoubtedly beautiful, the name ‘Victoria’ Falls is emblematic of its inherent colonial legacy. In fact, it can be argued that early European development surrounding the falls embodied a colonial drive to exploit African resources at a local and regional scale. Nevertheless, the falls today have become vitally important for the tourism sector in both Zambia and Zimbabwe (the falls straddle the border and can be visited from either country). I was lucky enough to visit as a boy in the late 2000s and, although some time ago, I remember it as a truly special place.
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| Victoria Falls |
Victoria Falls is fed by the Zambezi River. Thus, any impact of regional drying surrounding the Zambezi will have a knock-on effect downstream on Victoria Falls. In 2019, a prolonged drought caused a significant reduction in flow, resulting in a partial drying of the falls. Reactionary (and somewhat sensationalist) media reporting, catalysed its effect on the local tourism sector. Sky News reported that the falls had slowed to ‘a dribble’, prompting mass holiday cancellations, impacting tour operations on both sides of the border. For countries like Zambia, who rely heavily on nature-based tourism for much of their economy’s service sector, a blow to tourism can considerably reduce GDP. A study published in 2020, found that many tourists considered Victoria Falls a ‘last-chance to see’ destination, suggesting significant implications for the long term viability of a water-based tourism industry. Although the majority of stakeholders have not yet developed or implemented adaptation strategies, the industry must diversify, particularly during periods of drought. There is also a need for greater cross-border cooperation in research, as political boundaries rarely align with climatic ones.
There is statistically significant evidence to support a link between climate variability and tourism in the Zambian town of Livingstone, which is nearby to the falls. It has seen that increasingly variable weather, including inconsistent rainfall, have a negative impact on tourism. In this example, the town’s economy is directly affected by climate variability. In the meantime, overdramatization in the media can exacerbate climate impacts. In the case of Victoria Falls, the waterfall is split into two parts (or “cataracts”). Most photos in news articles contending that the falls had ‘dried-up’, were taken of the Eastern Cataract, which has a naturally significantly smaller flow and occasionally, seasonally runs dry, a phenomenon colloquially known as ‘Victoria Walls’. This usually happens around December (the end of the dry-season), but, during periods of less rainfall, lag between rainfall and discharge results in the later-than-usual return of full-flow.
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| Aerial photo showing the cataracts ((October (dry season) 2006)) |
Whilst it is important to note that an isolated incidence of extreme weather cannot be directly attributed to climate change, it serves as an example of what can happen as a result of a drought. The link between increasingly extreme weather and climate change is undeniable, thus this event acts as an example of the numerous indirect social impacts of climate change and a warning for the future.
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