An Overview

 ‘Africa’. A word that stirs a multitude of connotations and preconceptions, many of which are often illusionary or erroneous. Africa is often misunderstood and often stereotyped, particularly when viewed through a ‘western’ lens. Yet, it is a vastly diverse continent; environmentally, culturally, socially and economically. It is not one big country or a single entity. It spans over 30 million km², contains 54 distinct (UN recognised) nations and is large enough to engulf the US, China, India and much of Europe within its geographical confines. Being a wildlife enthusiast from a young age, I have had the immense privilege of visiting much of the continent in my relatively short lifetime. I hope to use some of my personal experiences to help put an individual spin on this blog, shining a spotlight on Africa, focusing on the interactions between environmental change and the most basic of human necessities - water.

It's not Africa's fault

Environmental change has become a huge talking point, not only in the scientific community, but in the political domain and in popular culture. The term envelopes a variety of matters, notably climate and land-use change. In the build-up to COP 26, discussion surrounding environmental change is of particular relevance. Climate change has had a profound global effect, demonstrated by the continued increase in global mean temperatures (the past six years all being the hottest on record). The impacts of environmental change on the African continent are imbalanced. Although contributing comparatively little to anthropogenic climate change in terms of emissions (total GHG emissions from Africa amounted to just 4% of global emissions in 2017), Africa continues to experience substantial environmental change and increased climate variability, putting some of the world's most vulnerable at risk. 

Climate variability, often means unpredictability. Unpredictability makes forecasting and preparation difficult, risking economic and ecological damage and putting the most vulnerable at risk. The World Meteorological Organisation reports that last year (2019/20), climate change contributed to rising poverty, displacement and food insecurity across the African continent. Furthermore, it is estimated that, unless adequate response measures to environmental change are developed and implemented, 118 million of the poorest individuals in Africa will be exposed to severe episodes of floods and droughts by 2030. Failing to adapt could hamper economic growth and poverty alleviation efforts. In fact, it is estimated that Sub-Saharan Africa could lose 3% of its GDP by 2050 due to climate change.  

Dark clouds form over a Maasai village during the rainy season, northern Tanzania

GCM, water and Africa

The African continent experiences a spatially and temporally varied climate, making it relatively challenging to understand and predict. Predicting inter-annual and inter decadal variations in climate and rainfall has been a major task for African climate scientists, as Africa has climates which are both varied and varying. Varied, in that they range from arid desert to humid equatorial rainforest and almost everything in-between. Varying, in that all climates are subject to seasonal and temporal variations, specifically in rainfall.

 

High variability in rainfall can be partially attributed to Africa’s diverse and complex topography, the impact of large-scale climate drivers like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic dipole and regular internal variability that characterises the water cycle generally. Africa’s naturally varied landscape and land-cover change, also play a large role in modifying regional climates, making climate change predictions difficult to present with confidence. Global climate change is now exacerbating what was already an intricate problem.

As a result, Africa has witnessed excess precipitation in some regions and deficits in others, causing periods of flooding and droughts. For example, higher than normal rainfall in the Sahel region (attributed to an extended West African monsoon), with it's highest rainfall totals in 20 years, but lower than normal rainfall in Angola, central/southern Madagascar and Zambia. 

 

Global Climate Models (GCMs) rely on a multitude of factors that are hard to predict, including population size, emissions, climate sensitivity, land-use change and natural interactions. A major limitation to applying GCMs to Africa, is that they tend to ignore the influence of natural climate variability, including the impact of ENSO and land-cover change as drivers for African climate variability. It is important to consider how GCMs relate to high ‘natural’ climate variability in Africa, in order to assess how truly accurate a prediction they are for the continent. 

Interactions between water and environmental change in Africa are complex and numerous. This blog will seek to explore some specific and unique challenges, in further detail.